The builders are almost certain

The business climate in the construction sector in the third quarter remains generally stable, although, as follows from the survey of the Center for Conjunctural Research (CCR) of the Higher School of Economics, the trend of strengthening entrepreneurial confidence "was corrected by some slowdown". Thus, the index of entrepreneurial confidence slightly, by one percentage point, decreased compared to the second quarter, amounting to minus 13%, but remained in a relatively favorable zone.

 

The key factors affecting the business climate in the sector are the physical volume of work and availability of orders. At present, 19% of the surveyed companies note the growth of the volume of works, while 21% - the decrease. Companies are more optimistic about the fourth quarter, which is usually the most "fat" in terms of input volumes: 23% expect growth, 12% - reduction. At the same time, estimates of capacity utilization have improved: the average indicator is 59% (against 57% a quarter earlier). A year ago, however, the average utilization rate was estimated at 66%.

The survey does not provide detailed data, but the CSI HSE notes that two thirds of the organizations record that the number of concluded contracts remains at the level of the second quarter, while among the other opinions the answers about their decrease prevail by a margin of three percentage points. According to Rosstat, the average period of securing orders amounted to six months in the third quarter, the same as a quarter earlier.

 

 

The index of business potential, which reflects assessments of the current and expected trends in the coming months, remains in the favorable range - 99.8% (against 99.7% a quarter earlier), which, as noted in the survey, "signals the preservation of the production activity achieved during the year and the overall financial and economic potential of construction companies." However, according to Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Higher School of Economics, "one of the main unknowns is the economic behavior of the industry in the context of the growth of the key rate of the Central Bank and, accordingly, the rise in the cost of all types of credit, including mortgages". Among the factors that limit development are still the high cost of construction materials (44% of respondents point this out), high taxes (35%) and lack of qualified workers (24%).